Haber Akışı

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave rates unchanged next week but still project a June hike if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and inflation risks persist.

JPMorgan says oil prices still have further to rise because the market has not yet forced enough demand out of the system to offset the supply loss from the Iran war. Global oil supply disruptions reached 9.1 million barrels per day in March and climbed to 13.7 million barrels per day in April, acco

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold.

The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, lacking clear direction as upside remains capped by Oil-driven inflation linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have raised expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny links the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure to rising Oil and input costs, with agricultural and fuel prices already surging. Halpenny assumes crude Oil averages USD 115 in Q2, lifting US inflation toward 3.8% later this year.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that stronger‑than‑forecast United Kingdom (UK) inflation and PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) raise the question of a potential hawkish dissent at next week’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting, even though the house view is for a unanimous hold.

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The U.S. naval blockade is clearly hurting Iran, but it has not forced Tehran to bend. Iranian oil exports have fallen sharply, vessel traffic is down, ships have been turned back or seized, and the pressure on Iran’s economy is real. But the blockade is not airtight

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen argues that muted market reactions have reduced urgency for central banks to act, even as Middle East conflict risks persist.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that EUR/USD is hovering near its 200-day moving average as Eurozone data signal stalling growth and rising inflation pressures.

BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Oil remains a key market barometer as the Iran war disrupts supply, with Brent up sharply and the International Energy Agency warning that the global natural gas market will stay tight for at least two more years.

NZD/USD trades higher around 0.5865 on Friday, gaining 0.22% at the time of writing, while the US Dollar (USD) loses ground with the US Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.18% at 98.65.