Makro Haberleri

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that expectations of progress toward peace in Iran are driving a bond rally and shaping flows in the United States (US) Treasury market. As Oil prices fall and real rates reprice, he argues exporter surpluses and reserve management trends could again favor the US Dollar (USD).

Nomura's research analysts report that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.25% in May, citing frustration with sticky underlying inflation and a need to preserve credibility after earlier guidance.

TD Securities strategist Bart Melek argues that Gold’s recent decline reflects the Iran-driven Oil shock, higher inflation expectations and a firmer US Dollar, which are keeping Fed policy tighter for longer.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar has given back all its war-related gains, with recent weakness seen as overdone.

Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Susan Collins said during the late European trading session on Thursday that she sees the central bank holding interest rates at their current levels for longer. Collins added that she expects interest rate cuts to be the baseline scenario going ahead.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that the Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.50% despite a rise in headline inflation to 2.5% year-on-year in April. Governor Michl has emphasized maintaining positive real rates to support savings.

USD/JPY trades around 156.30 on Thursday at the time of writing, down a modest 0.05% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains supported by speculation that Japanese authorities could step into the market to curb the currency’s weakness.

TD Securities strategists Izidor Flajsman and Prashant Newnaha argue that Australia is entering a rare phase of unilateral RBA tightening, with the Fed expected to cut while the RBA continues hiking.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades higher against its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), during the European trading session on Thursday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day, trading around 97.90 during the European hours on Thursday.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes the US Dollar (USD) has softened as US Dollar Index (DXY) retests support and US yields fall, while equities hit new highs. Recent US data show stronger ADP employment but worrying ISM services inflation and weak employment.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in the European trading session on Thursday that the central bank should focus on the data and not the timing of any monetary policy adjustment